Russian diesel has moved from being the main bullish factor in global middle-distillate markets in 2025 to an overwhelmingly bearish force by early 2026, reversing a year-long surge in refining margins. The European diesel crack spread rose from $16.7/bbl in early January 2025 to $34.17/bbl in November as Russian supply – already structurally weakened since the start of the war – slid into acute shortage…
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